OMG!

Sep. 5th, 2019 11:38 am
johnny9fingers: (Default)
Boris’s brother, Joe, has done a Brutus and resigned, or as good as...

Wow!
johnny9fingers: (Default)
I found this about the most likely route to avoid Boris and Dominic doing a “find the lady” on the rest of us.

Apparently it’s all fairly mechanistic, deterministic and clockwork:

MPs pass the Law blocking No Deal Brexit
Vote of No Confidence immediately called
Johnson demands General Election under Fixed Term Parliaments Act
Vote of No Confidence Passes
Vote for GE rejected, fails to get required two thirds of MPs
MPs select Caretaker PM commanding the support of majority the House
*** Prorogue Intermission ***
Johnson refuses to resign as PM
MPs send Humble Address to Queen
Queen sacks PM
Queen appoints Caretaker PM nominated by MPs
Caretaker PM moves Brexit Date out ahead of any General Election
Caretaker PM calls General Election

Thanks to LucianOfSamosata from the Graun.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
The new term starts. Bojo now has to cope with rebellions, cross-party alliances and all the razzmatazz that accompanies such high-stakes constitutional gambling.

Having come across as Uncle Benito in a child's Winnie-the-Pooh costume, because Dominic told him he had to be strict-and-stern to stop the nasty splitters splitting, he now has to deal with a temporarily united opposition.

Of course, the Labour party have finally realised that Bojo still holds trump cards: he can be forced to go to the EU and beg for an extension period, but he can veto it too. (It's in the rules that any member can veto an extension and until we leave; Boris has that vote.) He can be forced to hold a general election, but he can always put back the election date to past our leaving date for a perfect fait accompli. His hands can't be tied. And he cannot be trusted. So he has to be forced out and replaced by a government of national unity for the remainder of the Fixed Term Parliament.

And that's not going to happen.

This is going right to the wire.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.thecanary.co/global/world-analysis/2019/08/28/johnson-disregards-history-as-british-forces-readied-to-combat-unrest-in-north-of-ireland/

And it appears that the GFA is toast.

The nightmare continues. After a history between England and Ireland spanning millennia, in the last five hundred or so years the occasional periods of peace have been firstly, hard-won, and after some period tossed aside as irrelevant for reasons of "greater issues".

You bastards. You have sacrificed one of those sustained periods of peace to an ideological insanity.

What can a person do? Shout it from the rooftops? Carry placards? Lie in the bath drinking your best Falernian, conversing with your friends; and opening the vein? Pull the duvet cover over your head?

Decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.


OK

Aug. 28th, 2019 03:28 pm
johnny9fingers: (Default)
The prorogation of Parliament means that the only option now left with time to be effective is actually a no-confidence vote. And that's not going to happen if Jezza is going to lead the united opposition to a hard Brexit; it will only happen if someone like Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman can lead a cross-party government of national unity. Jezza ain't the man to do that.

But, at a guess, Seamus will never allow him to see that fact.

Now it becomes obvious how Dominic has played his hand, and he is relying, perfectly properly IMHO, that Seamus will constrain Jezza, and any cross-party co-operation in opposition to Boris's version of Brexit will necessarily fail.

But maybe, just maybe, Dominic will be wrong. Jezza was always a Bennite Brexiter. I guess he didn't consider that when cut adrift from the EU that we would merely end up a twitching carcase for the vulture capitalists to pick-over. I'm sure Seamus can prevent anyone with such an opinion actually speaking to Jezza.

Gods, we are so stuffed. So very stuffed.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
Has Boris moved too early?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

This may just possibly give the opposition the motivation to get behind Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman as leader and stop the whole thing from being a total disaster.

Tempo is everything in politics. This is a surprising move given he has now telegraphed his intent and limited the time in which any opposition has to happen; this has to concentrate the opposition to a Hard Brexit. I guess Boris and Dominic are pretty assured of the general complacency and pig-headedness in the Labour Party coming to the assistance of the Hard Brexiter group. In this I think their analysis to be correct. But I live in hope that I’m wrong.

I didn’t know that some in the British Establishment hated the Good Friday Agreement that much; because it appears that the ERG and Tory party have repudiated it completely; either that or they were just too fucking stupid to realise what they were tinkering with, having always overlooked every fucking Irish question that has ever been raised.

Well, I’m getting an Irish passport. Brexit has done this. I will always acknowledge HM as my personal liege, but her government is something I find intolerable atm.
 
johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/26/brexit-shutting-down-parliament-gravest-abuse-of-power-in-living-memory-legal-advice

They’ve just cottoned on, you know. And Lady Chakrabarti, although Shadow Attorney General, may have a position which she views this from.

Boris can legitimately argue that parliament has already voted to leave under any circumstances on the 31st Oct. The deal is done and dusted. This is what happens when people vote stupidly, whether they are in parliament, or the general population; or those enfranchised thereof.

I guess I’d say to the 52% that you have brought this upon yourselves, and us all. And the sensible minority among us now have to find a way to repair the damage you have caused. But under our breaths we shall curse you. And when misfortune befalls you we will have some secret joy.

But you’ve done your job; all those snowflake lefties, moderates, old-fashioned folk, gun control hypocrites, etc are all so angry that instead of prayers at night, they probably take a poppet made in one of your heroes’ likeness and stick it full of pins, just to make them feel better. Old-fashioned English sympathetic magic? Well I did read about some pagan chaps who were doing whatever it is they do against Boris and his ilk, but I’ve always thought of that sort of thing as the perfect definition of reaching for the impossible. But I can see it being comforting for some, otherwise powerless folk.

You’ve weaponised the peaceniks, how very droll. And Boris as the cat’s paw, that’s even droller.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/26/boris-johnson-warning-mps-block-no-deal-brexit

I thought we had sorted this out in the Civil War; Parliament is sovereign. Not the government, not the monarch, but Parliament.

Boris is really going to be in a difficult situation if he rides roughshod over Parliament. It may take the speaker to step in, of course, but I think he might just do that.

Bliss.

But at least Bojo gets to capitalise on Cameron and Osborne's Fixed Term Parliament Act and can drag us out of Europe without Parliamentary approval on the idea of a no-deal Brexit.

This is all so shocking it really is like an accidental coup d'état by the stupid and hard of thinking; but led by a scholarship boy who spent his whole life coasting on his intelligence and who never actually worked hard at anything apart from getting his leg over. (I know the breed well, as I am something similar; excepting I have the patience to read and parse the GFA and understand the implications of Brexit without an agreement.)

As for Boris, may I recommend the opening lines to Catullus XVI:

Pedicabo ego uos et irrumabo...

Or is that what he's doing to us?
johnny9fingers: (Default)
...it does rather seem as if it is one he clutches to his manly breast as a totemic good-luck charm. After all, it has gotten him this far.

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/25/britain-can-easily-cope-with-no-deal-brexit-claims-boris-johnson

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/26/eu-would-block-trade-deal-if-britain-reneged-on-brexit-bill

But let's see what happens.

One thing certainly has to happen with the next government; the repeal of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act. I don't fucking care about party nonsense; we cannot have this constitutional crisis happen again. Cameron and Osborne's brilliant ideas have put us in this mess. The comparisons with Lord North aren't good enough, I'm afraid. Cameron and Osborne have landed us in worse shit than North ever did. North only lost us the US colonies. Cameron and Osborne stitched up the country in order to patch up their party; and I wonder if party before country is one definition of treason through oversight? It's like accidental manslaughter. It's just the body within the lines is in this case our body politic; slain through unforeseen consequences.

If I were Cameron or Osborne I would have hied me to a monastery to live out my life in prayer, hoping for forgiveness.

As is, this has left us with Bojo the Clown as our Premier. Boris has put on a serious face as the odds of no deal have dropped from a million-to-one to touch-and-go as the EU have refused to throw the GFA under a bus. And this is what it is all about. Because Brexit is incompatible with the GFA one has to go, and democratically speaking, the folk in the UK have voted to ditch the GFA after being lied to quite a bit. Including about the GFA and Brexit being compatible.

Boris knows that he will be arming and recruiting the new IRA with these actions. Rees-Mogg knows this too. But I guess their personal advantage must be such that they are prepared to ignore the consequences of their actions for the rest of us.

That's good government for you.

Boris...

Aug. 20th, 2019 07:51 am
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There are some surprising things about Boris’s first days: firstly he’s coming across as being surprisingly competent in all matters excepting Brexit, wherein his hands are tied (something he did to himself, it must be noted).

At a guess this must be pretty uncomfortable for him. His latest pronouncement has declared the backstop anti-democratic.

www.bbc.co.uk/news

So is the Good Friday Agreement, Boris, old chap. Anyway, it’s nice to know that after more than two decades of grumbling acquiescence to the notion of peace, the more extreme Boyos1 are beginning to flex their muscles again.

Lets face it, if Boris and his ERG chums get their way we can look forward to a return of the Troubles. It will be interesting when our terrorists don’t all fall into one neat demographic group, hey? I do hope Boris is going to increase spending on intelligence. We are going to need some of that.


1 Boyos: chaps inclined to bombing and violence for Irish nationalist reasons. Pronounced boy - ose.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
I read that Philip Hammond, ex-chancellor of the exchequer, has criticised Boris:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49336144

in a rather sensible analysis.

Our redoubtable PM responded later with the statement that Brexit opponents are "collaborating" with Berlin Brussels.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49348072

Rather that than collaborate with Putin, Bannon, Cambridge Analytica (dec'd), and Crispin Odey.

As we all know, by your friends are ye known. Boris still has some pretty decent chums. Sometimes we are not to blame for our friend's mistakes; and even peer pressure can't ameliorate the influences of rampant ambition on a chap's behaviour.

Tosspots in Brexit have made the present argument about a hard Brexit a binary one and then complain that Remainers aren't compromising. The New Irish Question is really going to come back and bite Boris in the bum. I actually now have a perverse hope that Boris wins a General Election after we crash out; and then comes up against the Irish caucus in the States. I think he has to own this all properly, to use the modern idiom. Even so I'd prefer us to avoid it all. We will see.




johnny9fingers: (Default)
That the Labour party bigwigs have finally understood the situation they are in:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49285670

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/08/corbyn-johnson-plotting-abuse-of-power-to-force-no-deal-brexit

No shit, Sherlock.

Now this is the official opposition finally waking up to the situation they (and we) are in.

When both the Government and the Opposition are not fit for purpose the only conclusion available to me is that our politics are no longer fit for purpose. It seems Corbyn, Milne, et al are at least two or three tempi behind the Dominic Cummings of the world. I'd have thought better of Milne, he shouldn't be too dim; after all he is an Old Wykehamist. I must assume therefore that the Labour Leadership actually want Boris to push us over the cliff so that they can pose as heroic rescuers.

Nah. We will see them for the gaslighting enablers they are.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
Have had unintended consequences:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/07/dominic-cummings-takes-swipe-at-greive-over-confidence-vote-plan

And now neither Cameron or Osborne can fix this mess. Thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act we will now have a guaranteed no-deal Brexit on the 31st October. Even should Boris lose a no-confidence vote he need only call the election to happen after the legally mandated Brexit date has passed.

Boris and chums are still trying to throw the GFA under a bus, however the US Irish caucus may have something to say about that. I know, as I have rellies who are part of that US Irish caucus, and rellies on both sides of the Irish Border, and the family grapevine yields the odd snippets of intent.

The stupid fucking Brexit berserkers don’t seem to have taken the US Irish lobby into account in their blanket dismissal of the New Irish Question. I hope they are prepared to accept the blame when it all goes wrong. Because they will be blamed, both publicly and privately. Here is an analysis from an Irish person on the border.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/07/northern-ireland-hard-border-brexit-customs

I did hear that the Camerons and Osbornes were snubbed quite a bit after the Brexit vote. I wonder if the authors of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act will feel the same chill social wind?

The UK’s constitutional crisis continues to unfold as predicted. So far each of the points have been reached and ticked. All it needs now is for HM to die and we shall be totally and completely fucked.


johnny9fingers: (Default)
It appears the government's majority has been cut to one.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-lib-dems-jane-dodds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one

Congratulations to Jane Dodds and the LibDems.

But this also means that sensible decent conservatives (there are a few) like Dominic Grieve and Phillip Hammond can really make things extremely difficult for Boris. There are a few folk on the Labour benches who will be prepared to vote for Brexit; so the final parliamentary arithmetic remains opaque.

It may come down to a general election.

If so I waver between thinking it will be the largest turn-out ever, or the smallest.

So...

Aug. 1st, 2019 06:40 am
johnny9fingers: (Default)
According to the DUP Boris had read his briefs and was up to speed.

Now if he can keep this up we may see the clever scholarship boy rather than the lazy leg-over specialist. Even so, I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes in this mess. If he can extract the UK from these present circumstances without too much damage I think that would count as a win of a kind; even given his manifest assistance in getting us neck-deep in the shit.

But let’s be realistic here; reading a couple of briefs to bring you up to speed on a difficult situation doesn’t mean you will be able to sort it out. Boris wouldn’t be the first person to overestimate his competences and abilities.

The stakes are rather high in this situation, however. Weirdly I hope that when Boris fails the UK will awaken from this mad situation and revoke article 50; but that’s just another pipe-dream.

Another slant on Boris’s way of doing things comes in today’s Grauniad by a “Civil Servant”:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/01/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-whitehall-democracy-civil-servants

Now that really is quite scary. I did wonder if Boris had put a government of all the monsters together just to unite the rest of us against what is the most awful collection of frankly bonkers Tories imaginable. I just don’t think the rest of us can unite against anything though; fatigue and boredom have set in, and the monsters will take us out without a deal and then flounder, not knowing what to do afterwards excepting asset-stripping the corpse.

Oh dear...

Jul. 31st, 2019 09:44 am
johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

Now it's going to be very difficult for Boris to blame the EU for this mess, because he will have to also blame the US Congress. In fact, it's everyone's fault but ours, hey Boris? Or just maybe it could be, when you read the fine print (which is something Boris never does) we find that Brexit is fundamentally incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Despite this, whether or not an acceptable fudge to avoid the incompatibility can be made is now looking much less likely.

Boris is just beginning to realise the pile of codswallop he has sold the public. Now we can force him to eat it, bit by bit. Day by day. In public.

I fear very soon I'm going to be feeling quite sorry for Boris on so many levels. But that's where we are.

 
johnny9fingers: (Default)
By now it should have become apparent to Boris that, having sown the wind, the time has come to reap whatever Aeolus sends our way.

What will happen should the Remainers prove to be equally as intransigent as the Brexiters? Boris has gotten his heart's desire; he is PM and leader of the Tory party. He has achieved it by assisting in breaking apart what little social cohesion was left in the UK after Maggie's "no such thing as society" depredations.

I wonder what it feels like to have undermined the nation, and the Union, and the economy; all to service the ambition of a chap who dreamt big while being clever enough to have coasted his way to just missing a first.

Sometimes it is about the detail, and the boring stuff on which it is difficult to concentrate; something Boris never quite got the hang of, or so it appears.


This post was made in direct contravention to the Jacob Rees-Mogg style guide. Ands can follow commas in my world.

Boris...

Jul. 25th, 2019 12:02 am
johnny9fingers: (Default)
Jesus.

He’s put the ERG in charge.

This is mad. Really mad. 
johnny9fingers: (Default)
And we hold our breath. With luck Boris can get a few clever chums to help him out here; and he does have clever chums - I've met one or two of them.

Something like 57% of the population apparently now want to remain; it's almost as if the population has been given more information about the situation we find ourselves in.

What a shame we are locked in to an ideological position arrived at by very dodgy manipulation. I'm pleased more folk are going to find out what happened during the referendum after the release of The Great Hack.

www.theguardian.com/film/2019/jul/23/the-great-hack-review-cambridge-analytica-facebook-carole-cadwalladr-arron-banks

I anticipate having my worst suspicions confirmed.

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