OMG!

Sep. 5th, 2019 11:38 am
johnny9fingers: (Default)
Boris’s brother, Joe, has done a Brutus and resigned, or as good as...

Wow!
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I found this about the most likely route to avoid Boris and Dominic doing a “find the lady” on the rest of us.

Apparently it’s all fairly mechanistic, deterministic and clockwork:

MPs pass the Law blocking No Deal Brexit
Vote of No Confidence immediately called
Johnson demands General Election under Fixed Term Parliaments Act
Vote of No Confidence Passes
Vote for GE rejected, fails to get required two thirds of MPs
MPs select Caretaker PM commanding the support of majority the House
*** Prorogue Intermission ***
Johnson refuses to resign as PM
MPs send Humble Address to Queen
Queen sacks PM
Queen appoints Caretaker PM nominated by MPs
Caretaker PM moves Brexit Date out ahead of any General Election
Caretaker PM calls General Election

Thanks to LucianOfSamosata from the Graun.
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The new term starts. Bojo now has to cope with rebellions, cross-party alliances and all the razzmatazz that accompanies such high-stakes constitutional gambling.

Having come across as Uncle Benito in a child's Winnie-the-Pooh costume, because Dominic told him he had to be strict-and-stern to stop the nasty splitters splitting, he now has to deal with a temporarily united opposition.

Of course, the Labour party have finally realised that Bojo still holds trump cards: he can be forced to go to the EU and beg for an extension period, but he can veto it too. (It's in the rules that any member can veto an extension and until we leave; Boris has that vote.) He can be forced to hold a general election, but he can always put back the election date to past our leaving date for a perfect fait accompli. His hands can't be tied. And he cannot be trusted. So he has to be forced out and replaced by a government of national unity for the remainder of the Fixed Term Parliament.

And that's not going to happen.

This is going right to the wire.
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And I have to agree with him completely.

His analysis was masterly.

If only there had been no Iraq war he could have been the greatest Premier we have ever had. And I include in that WLSC. Instead Blair is what he is; a political colossus with blood on his hands.

Oh what if; if only; if.

I am presently watching Jeremy Corbyn making a speech from Salford. Corbyn's speech is bland and doesn't stick to the point; he meanders and loses focus with individual examples. Blair, who has a good political brain almost on par with Lord Mandelson or Dominic Cummings, gets to the point with a scalpel. Corbyn is still electioneering as I listen.

Blair didn't accuse Johnson of anything, but his analysis was infinitely more devastating. The text to Blair's speech doesn't appear to be available. Shame, as it was rather good.

Maybe Blair can pull something out of the bag. He, Gordon Brown, and John Major together would be a formidable group of ex PMs. Maybe get Sir Nick Clegg onside; but whatever, I don't think David Cameron needs to be included, does he?
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www.thecanary.co/global/world-analysis/2019/08/28/johnson-disregards-history-as-british-forces-readied-to-combat-unrest-in-north-of-ireland/

And it appears that the GFA is toast.

The nightmare continues. After a history between England and Ireland spanning millennia, in the last five hundred or so years the occasional periods of peace have been firstly, hard-won, and after some period tossed aside as irrelevant for reasons of "greater issues".

You bastards. You have sacrificed one of those sustained periods of peace to an ideological insanity.

What can a person do? Shout it from the rooftops? Carry placards? Lie in the bath drinking your best Falernian, conversing with your friends; and opening the vein? Pull the duvet cover over your head?

Decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.


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Has Boris moved too early?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

This may just possibly give the opposition the motivation to get behind Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman as leader and stop the whole thing from being a total disaster.

Tempo is everything in politics. This is a surprising move given he has now telegraphed his intent and limited the time in which any opposition has to happen; this has to concentrate the opposition to a Hard Brexit. I guess Boris and Dominic are pretty assured of the general complacency and pig-headedness in the Labour Party coming to the assistance of the Hard Brexiter group. In this I think their analysis to be correct. But I live in hope that I’m wrong.

I didn’t know that some in the British Establishment hated the Good Friday Agreement that much; because it appears that the ERG and Tory party have repudiated it completely; either that or they were just too fucking stupid to realise what they were tinkering with, having always overlooked every fucking Irish question that has ever been raised.

Well, I’m getting an Irish passport. Brexit has done this. I will always acknowledge HM as my personal liege, but her government is something I find intolerable atm.
 
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www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/26/brexit-shutting-down-parliament-gravest-abuse-of-power-in-living-memory-legal-advice

They’ve just cottoned on, you know. And Lady Chakrabarti, although Shadow Attorney General, may have a position which she views this from.

Boris can legitimately argue that parliament has already voted to leave under any circumstances on the 31st Oct. The deal is done and dusted. This is what happens when people vote stupidly, whether they are in parliament, or the general population; or those enfranchised thereof.

I guess I’d say to the 52% that you have brought this upon yourselves, and us all. And the sensible minority among us now have to find a way to repair the damage you have caused. But under our breaths we shall curse you. And when misfortune befalls you we will have some secret joy.

But you’ve done your job; all those snowflake lefties, moderates, old-fashioned folk, gun control hypocrites, etc are all so angry that instead of prayers at night, they probably take a poppet made in one of your heroes’ likeness and stick it full of pins, just to make them feel better. Old-fashioned English sympathetic magic? Well I did read about some pagan chaps who were doing whatever it is they do against Boris and his ilk, but I’ve always thought of that sort of thing as the perfect definition of reaching for the impossible. But I can see it being comforting for some, otherwise powerless folk.

You’ve weaponised the peaceniks, how very droll. And Boris as the cat’s paw, that’s even droller.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/26/boris-johnson-warning-mps-block-no-deal-brexit

I thought we had sorted this out in the Civil War; Parliament is sovereign. Not the government, not the monarch, but Parliament.

Boris is really going to be in a difficult situation if he rides roughshod over Parliament. It may take the speaker to step in, of course, but I think he might just do that.

Bliss.

But at least Bojo gets to capitalise on Cameron and Osborne's Fixed Term Parliament Act and can drag us out of Europe without Parliamentary approval on the idea of a no-deal Brexit.

This is all so shocking it really is like an accidental coup d'état by the stupid and hard of thinking; but led by a scholarship boy who spent his whole life coasting on his intelligence and who never actually worked hard at anything apart from getting his leg over. (I know the breed well, as I am something similar; excepting I have the patience to read and parse the GFA and understand the implications of Brexit without an agreement.)

As for Boris, may I recommend the opening lines to Catullus XVI:

Pedicabo ego uos et irrumabo...

Or is that what he's doing to us?
johnny9fingers: (Default)
...it does rather seem as if it is one he clutches to his manly breast as a totemic good-luck charm. After all, it has gotten him this far.

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/25/britain-can-easily-cope-with-no-deal-brexit-claims-boris-johnson

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/26/eu-would-block-trade-deal-if-britain-reneged-on-brexit-bill

But let's see what happens.

One thing certainly has to happen with the next government; the repeal of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act. I don't fucking care about party nonsense; we cannot have this constitutional crisis happen again. Cameron and Osborne's brilliant ideas have put us in this mess. The comparisons with Lord North aren't good enough, I'm afraid. Cameron and Osborne have landed us in worse shit than North ever did. North only lost us the US colonies. Cameron and Osborne stitched up the country in order to patch up their party; and I wonder if party before country is one definition of treason through oversight? It's like accidental manslaughter. It's just the body within the lines is in this case our body politic; slain through unforeseen consequences.

If I were Cameron or Osborne I would have hied me to a monastery to live out my life in prayer, hoping for forgiveness.

As is, this has left us with Bojo the Clown as our Premier. Boris has put on a serious face as the odds of no deal have dropped from a million-to-one to touch-and-go as the EU have refused to throw the GFA under a bus. And this is what it is all about. Because Brexit is incompatible with the GFA one has to go, and democratically speaking, the folk in the UK have voted to ditch the GFA after being lied to quite a bit. Including about the GFA and Brexit being compatible.

Boris knows that he will be arming and recruiting the new IRA with these actions. Rees-Mogg knows this too. But I guess their personal advantage must be such that they are prepared to ignore the consequences of their actions for the rest of us.

That's good government for you.
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What if I were to suggest that the most important study of the far-right worldwide had been made by a physics professor?

Wel, her we hav an article in today's Grauniad, sa fotherington-tomas1:

www.theguardian.com/science/2019/aug/22/online-hate-extremism-physics-science

Wherein we find that Neil Johnson has examined the structures of the politics of hate and tried to apply appropriate metaphors to describe his findings. I think this whole analysis/analogy bears greater examination, because, from where I stand, it looks rather apt and fit for purpose.

What I find interesting and heartening from his conclusions is that fighting with online trolls is actually worthwhile, but you can't do it by yourself.

Now obviously I need to solicit more opinions about this, and find proper criticisms of the analogies and analysis; but what is interesting to the intelligence agencies is the fact that Johnson has mapped the entire far-right network, and the information is now out there. I'm thinking about reformatting this and posting it in [community profile] talkpolitics , but I don't really have the time because I have the kids for the bank holiday weekend. Let's see.


1Lapsing into Molesworth-speak is in direct contravention of the Jacob Rees-Moog stile guide. For thos of you who dont kno her is the wikipedia link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Molesworth
johnny9fingers: (Default)
Have had unintended consequences:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/07/dominic-cummings-takes-swipe-at-greive-over-confidence-vote-plan

And now neither Cameron or Osborne can fix this mess. Thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act we will now have a guaranteed no-deal Brexit on the 31st October. Even should Boris lose a no-confidence vote he need only call the election to happen after the legally mandated Brexit date has passed.

Boris and chums are still trying to throw the GFA under a bus, however the US Irish caucus may have something to say about that. I know, as I have rellies who are part of that US Irish caucus, and rellies on both sides of the Irish Border, and the family grapevine yields the odd snippets of intent.

The stupid fucking Brexit berserkers don’t seem to have taken the US Irish lobby into account in their blanket dismissal of the New Irish Question. I hope they are prepared to accept the blame when it all goes wrong. Because they will be blamed, both publicly and privately. Here is an analysis from an Irish person on the border.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/07/northern-ireland-hard-border-brexit-customs

I did hear that the Camerons and Osbornes were snubbed quite a bit after the Brexit vote. I wonder if the authors of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act will feel the same chill social wind?

The UK’s constitutional crisis continues to unfold as predicted. So far each of the points have been reached and ticked. All it needs now is for HM to die and we shall be totally and completely fucked.


johnny9fingers: (Default)
It appears the government's majority has been cut to one.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-lib-dems-jane-dodds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one

Congratulations to Jane Dodds and the LibDems.

But this also means that sensible decent conservatives (there are a few) like Dominic Grieve and Phillip Hammond can really make things extremely difficult for Boris. There are a few folk on the Labour benches who will be prepared to vote for Brexit; so the final parliamentary arithmetic remains opaque.

It may come down to a general election.

If so I waver between thinking it will be the largest turn-out ever, or the smallest.

Oh dear...

Jun. 21st, 2019 08:51 pm
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Will this matter?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/police-called-to-loud-altercation-at-boris-johnsons-home

IIRC Boris was in college at Eton - a scholar who had his fees paid because he was brainy enough to have really aced the scholarship exam. In our day that mattered; as more than one OE has mentioned to me after I remarked that they ended their days as an Oppidan Scholar "It doesn't count unless you start as a scholar." And though, in prewar years, collegers were regarded as clever oiks; around the time of the late '60's and '70's scholarship was briefly in vogue. And Boris was a scholar in that period, and this rather accounts for his reputation for cleverness. And it must be said, at that time, only Wykehamist Scholars and Queen's Scholars at Westminster could be considered his rivals. (It also must be remembered that at this period boy's schools outperformed girl's schools by an unfortunate margin - Expectations? Social constraints? The causes need looking at, obvs.)

Now I disagree with Boris on a lot of things. And I think he's an overachieving chancer with a predisposition to make it up as he goes along. But I've seen humans, and that is most of us barring the saints. As a bloke and a person he evidently has his own demons to deal with, and you know, I hope he can get things sorted, because he always was charismatic, personable, and able within limits; if a bit chaotic and prone to extempore demagoguery. Surrounded by technicians, Boris could do all right given a level playing field. However...

Some drunk fucker drove a bus (with its sides plastered with insane promises) over the playing surface overnight; and that someone looks suspiciously like Boris.

Even so, if a chap is having a bit of a domestic with his GF, he has a right to do so in private as long as no-one is threatened or intimidated.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
It worked so well for Charles I.

So we have a second long parliament. Big deal.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
The Don has said if a foreign power offered dirt on 2020 opponent "I'd want to hear it".

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/12/trump-2020-elections-foreign-power-dirt-fbi

I wonder does that include friendly intelligence agencies like the Five Eyes network? I do hope so. I'm sure they have lots of info on various folk.

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Which I blogged about here there is this:

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/12/universal-credit-delays-a-factor-in-prostitution-government-accepts

Wherein we find that:

Donna Ward, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) senior civil servant responsible for children, families and disadvantage, told the committee chair, Frank Field, that it had fact-checked Alston’s report, which had in passing referred to a rise in survival sex.

“He made a lot of good points. It was factually correct,” she said. “I think where the secretary of state took issue with it, and where I as a civil servant can’t be involved, was the political interpretation of a lot of what’s happened.

“But in terms of the facts, in terms of austerity, cuts to local government, in terms of the reliance that we have on the labour market and the risks we face if there is a recession – all of those things were really good points that we have taken on board, and we should take on board.”

Our last two governments have been pretty disgusting institutional pimps. And now they are admitting it, but no-one appears to care very much.

Where is the sense of institutional shame? When the BBC had to confront the legacy of Saville, it showed institutional remorse, and put safeguards in place. Fat chance that any government will do any of that. Instead a minor functionary will fall on his or her sword. Eventually.

The Department of Work and Pensions needs a complete overhaul. As do the policies which encourage the outsourcing of the responsibility for determining whether folk are eligible or not for welfare; as this means there is no political accountability for this and it can all be blamed on the the private operators providing the service to the DWP.

When it all goes wrong, the government have managed to privatise the blame. That really is the current Tory party's main accomplishment.
johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/12/brexit-shambles-has-ruined-uk-reputation-says-senior-diplomat

Wherein we find that:-

"Scott Wightman, Britain’s outgoing senior diplomat in Singapore, has said Britain is now seen worldwide as a country beset by division, obsessed with ideology and careless of truth.

In a valedictory note, he compared Brexit to the fall of Singapore in 1942 and said major investors expect future investment in Europe to be directed more towards Germany and France
."

And

"Wightman said post-referendum political risk was now overseas investors’ “principal consideration”. He likened Brexit’s impact to the fall of Singapore in 1942, the largest British surrender in history and the battle that showed the “complacency and arrogance of colonial leadership.

It transformed their view of British imperialism,” he added. “Things were never the same again. The last three years have done the same for Singaporeans’ view of contemporary Britain.

I saw the Tory leadership campaigns' PR guff. So many supposedly intelligent folk deep in denial. What have we become?

We have become international idiots. A nation to be pitied. A divided nation in thrall to Tory party ideologues, fools, dupes, and con-artists. And the Labour Party is quite as bad. The Tory fellow-travellers of the extreme right (the ERG for those who don't know) fancy Boris.

Boris is wrong when he says the time has come to unite around Brexit. Fuck you Boris. We are fighting against Brexit to the last man. And we will never give up.

That is true for David Cameron as well. We will not forget, we will not forgive. You take this to the grave with you. And on that grave folk can spit as they pass.


johnny9fingers: (Default)
www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/05/austeristy-forcing-disabled-women-into-sex-work

Wherein we find:

The disability benefit system is supposed to be there to catch people such as Alice; a safety net for when ill health means she cannot have a job to pay the bills. But she is in a catch-22: she cannot claim the out-of-work sickness benefit, employment support allowance (ESA), because she is still registered as a student, despite the fact that her mental health meant she had to leave her course. “On the one hand, I’ve got someone saying: ‘You’re too unwell to study or work.’ On the other, I’ve got [the government] saying: ‘You’re not unwell enough to get support, and go away.’”

On top of this, she was turned down for the other key disability benefit, personal independence payment (PIP). In the middle of a depressive episode, she could not fill in the extensive paperwork. “Ironically, I wasn’t well enough to chase them,” she says. After reapplying and being rejected again, she had to appeal against the decision, which constitutes a mound of paperwork and then a tribunal in court. Besides, Alice worries that mental health problems are rarely seen by the benefit system as being as debilitating as, say, being a wheelchair user. It is a concern backed up by evidence: in 2018, the high court ruled that the PIP system was “blatantly discriminatory” against people with mental health problems, even going as far as to order the government to review 1.6m disability benefit claims. It all adds up to a situation where Alice could not pay the bills with either a wage or social security. As she put it to me: “I’ve got no income to speak of and the government doesn’t care.”

Instead, she has had to rely on sex work to get by. When I first speak to Alice, she is working. I have accidentally called her early and her client is still in her home. This is an intimate set-up but it generally works for her health. Being her own boss, she has a flexible working pattern and can control the use of her own flat. “When I’m having my down days, I don’t have an employer to answer to, and then, when I’m elated or if I’m actually well, I can sort my own bookings out and organise my own working pattern to cover the days that I can’t work,” she says.

I loathe the morality of the austerity measures which give tax-breaks to the biggest and wealthiest corporations on the planet, and condemn folk with mental health issues to prostitution or criminality. This is a specific case, obviously; but previously, as in the case of Belle de Jour (Dr. Brooke Magnanti) I have opined that we have structural problems which lead our post-grad students and junior academics to supplement their incomes or grants with sex work, as it is the only work which pays enough and which gives them the time to pursue their studies/research properly. But at least for clever folk without mental health issues there is a small element of choice. With folk who have mental health issues however...

Well, at least they're not being radicalised and turned into jihadists. But sex workers with mental health issues... just a recipe for trouble really. I suppose we will have to wait for a captain of industry or an MP to get his cock bitten off by a damaged prostitute before anything gets done about it.

Magdalenes with madness. It will not end well.


johnny9fingers: (Default)
twitter.com/KeohaneDan/status/1133826192212152320

twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1134010030670458880

Which rather reiterates points I've been making on and off these past few years.

(Many thanks to N. Whyte Esq. for the links.)


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