![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Covid19 update.
Apr. 28th, 2020 02:12 pmGermany has the most extensive testing of any major European nation.
Covid19 has a mortality rate of 3.8% according to their testing stats. I'd be willing to bet a small amount that the German figures end up as being the most accurate for the nations that can or have mitigated the virus onslaught via social measures like lockdowns, social distancing, etc.
Of course those poor nations with unmitigated responses are yet to post sensible numbers for analysis - and that's not necessarily their fault. I'd guess those nations will have a worse set of figures as and when they can be collated and analysed.
Now we can see if we can draw any sensible links between starting conditions, responses, and outcomes. We need good data though.
Having been through one recent bout of bad maths screwing up society (misplaced derivatives anyone?) and now this misplaced bit of risk analysis (herd immunity - such a detached view) isn't it about time the serious Mathmos at the top of their game realised they have to constrain their more bonkers brethren? We cannot live with facts or processes being subordinate to folk's more outré political or social opinions.
Which leads me naturally to the NHS Tracking app being built...
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/uk-government-using-confidential-patient-data-in-coronavirus-response
Which was given to Faculty, for whom Marc Warner is a bigwig. Marc Warner, whose brother Ben is good chums with Dominic Cummings, and who somehow managed to sit on the SAGE committee despite not having the sort of particular scientific expertise that would normally qualify him for such a position during a pandemic. There are better statistical modelling groups in many of the Maths depts of most universities, never mind from the heights of Cambridge or Imperial. Mind you, there is always "the Cambridge Problem" which surfaces from time to time. What is it about the odd individuals in the fens and odd right-wing behaviour? Never got over Hereward the Wake, perhaps.
In times of trouble I suppose we can give these nice eventually lucrative but supposedly socially beneficial contracts to our chums without putting the things out to tender.
Here are a few folk from Academia discussing it in 2018 on the BBC
Covid19 has a mortality rate of 3.8% according to their testing stats. I'd be willing to bet a small amount that the German figures end up as being the most accurate for the nations that can or have mitigated the virus onslaught via social measures like lockdowns, social distancing, etc.
Of course those poor nations with unmitigated responses are yet to post sensible numbers for analysis - and that's not necessarily their fault. I'd guess those nations will have a worse set of figures as and when they can be collated and analysed.
Now we can see if we can draw any sensible links between starting conditions, responses, and outcomes. We need good data though.
Having been through one recent bout of bad maths screwing up society (misplaced derivatives anyone?) and now this misplaced bit of risk analysis (herd immunity - such a detached view) isn't it about time the serious Mathmos at the top of their game realised they have to constrain their more bonkers brethren? We cannot live with facts or processes being subordinate to folk's more outré political or social opinions.
Which leads me naturally to the NHS Tracking app being built...
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/uk-government-using-confidential-patient-data-in-coronavirus-response
Which was given to Faculty, for whom Marc Warner is a bigwig. Marc Warner, whose brother Ben is good chums with Dominic Cummings, and who somehow managed to sit on the SAGE committee despite not having the sort of particular scientific expertise that would normally qualify him for such a position during a pandemic. There are better statistical modelling groups in many of the Maths depts of most universities, never mind from the heights of Cambridge or Imperial. Mind you, there is always "the Cambridge Problem" which surfaces from time to time. What is it about the odd individuals in the fens and odd right-wing behaviour? Never got over Hereward the Wake, perhaps.
In times of trouble I suppose we can give these nice eventually lucrative but supposedly socially beneficial contracts to our chums without putting the things out to tender.
Here are a few folk from Academia discussing it in 2018 on the BBC
